CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID Sun 01 Jan 06:00 - Mon 02 Jan 06:00 2006 (UTC)
ISSUED: 31 Jan 16:26 (UTC)
FORECASTER: DAHL

Thunderstorms are forecast across the central Mediterranean regions.

SYNOPSIS

W European upper long-wave trough will continue to dig SE into the central Mediterraean ... and thereby close off into a cut-off low late in the period. Early Sunday morning ... Alpine lee cyclogenesis is progged along associated cold front stretching from the SW Mediterranean NEWD into the N Balkans by Sunday 12Z. The lee low should reach the N Adriatic/N Balkan States by Monday 00Z.

DISCUSSION

...central Mediterranean...
It seems that weak and rather shallow instability will develop ahead of the cold front over the SW and central Mediterranean ... and a few TSTMS may develop along and ahead of the front ... especially in the evening hours. Kinematic fields should be strong enough to support isolated/brief severe evolution ... with short line/bowing segments being the most likely potentially severe mode ... though a mesocyclone or two cannot be ruled out either. Main threat should be marginally severe straight-line winds. Threat is too low for a SLGT.

In the postfrontal environment ... scattered shallow TSTMS should develop near the upper thermal low center ahead of imbedded vort max late in the period. Organized severe threat seems to be rather limited given weak low-level forcing for ascent and weak thermodynamic parameters ... however ... low-level thermodynamic fields may be supportive to waterspout or two.

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